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Market Timing is Stupid

When is it a good time to buy stocks? For the savvy investor the answer is “when stocks are cheap.” After all you want to buy low, sell high. But how do you know when stocks are cheap? How do you know when they’re expensive? The ability to buy low and sell high is easier said than done. Trying to determine the best times to buy and sell stocks is called market timing, and I’m here to tell you that market timing is stupid.

If you knew the stock market was going to crash next month, you would probably not invest in stocks right now. Knowing that the stock market traditionally always goes up eventually, you would wait until after the crash then invest in stocks. On the other hand, if you knew that the market was going to skyrocket next month, you would be socking away all the money you could in order to ride the wave upwards. If only we knew in August of 2019 that in 2 years Tesla would increase by over 2000% and Elon Musk would be worth more than Bill Gates and Warren Buffett combined!

The problem, of course, is that no one knows what the stock market is going to do tomorrow, much less months or years from now. If you were able to know then you could be worth more than Bill Gates and Warren Buffett combined.

Fancy Guestimation

The closest thing we have to knowing the future is data analytics. Based on past performance and future estimates, market analysts can guess where the market is going next. But that’s all these are: a guess. Several big-name firms have published their guesses for how the S&P 500 will look at the end of 2022 based on their own models and data analytics. As it stands right now, the S&P 500 is at about 4500.

Investment FirmS&P 500 Prediction for the end of 2022
Wells Fargo5,100-5,300
Goldman Sachs5100
J.P. Morgan5050
Bank of America4600
Morgan Stanley4400
Five top investment firms’ prediction for the S&P 500

The first thing you’ll notice here is that the spread is a whopping 900 points. That corresponds to a 20 percentage point different between Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley! That’s a big difference considering the long-term average for the S&P 500 is 7% increase per year.

So how do five well-respected firms come up with such a large spread in possible values? They’re all using the same data. All the information is published and accessible to the public. It has to be public because insider trading is illegal. So why aren’t these predictions more or less the same? The answer is they’re all just guessing.

The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

John Kenneth Galbraith

So What do I do With This Information?

What does this have to do with market timing being stupid? Well what if Wells Fargo or Goldman Sachs is correct and the stock market increases by 13%-18%? That would be great I’d put all of my money in the S&P 500. But what if BofA or Morgan Stanley is correct and the stock market stays flat for the year or worse goes down? You’re less eager to throw your life savings into the stock market.

Some people borrow money to invest. This is called “margin” and is a bad idea for the following reason. Let’s say you think Wells Fargo is correct and the market is going up up up. You’re so set on this that you borrow a large sum of money and use it to invest in the market. If you make gains on that money then you can pay off your loan with the gains you’ve made and keep the extras.

But let’s say instead Wells Fargo was too optimistic and instead the S&P 500 falls to 4200. Not only have you lost money in the stock market, you lost the money you borrowed. Now you’re in hot water when the bank comes calling on its debts. Never invest money you don’t own. Remember, the Wells Fargo analysts don’t know what the market will do. If they did they would be the richest people in the world rather than Elon.

But what about the other option? Instead of Wells Fargo, let’s say you think Morgan Stanley has the right idea and the market is going to drop. You’re afraid of a market crash so you stop investing and you pull all your money out of your 401(k). You don’t want to lose your life’s savings so you conservatively stuff that cash in your mattress.

Let’s say after you do this the S&P 500 does hit 5300. You’ve just lost out on 18% gains. And now you have a large sum of money that you have to decide what to do with. Do you put it back into your 401(k) and invest it in the market? You’ve already missed that 18% gain, maybe the market will drop 11% next year to correct to it’s 7% annual average? do you risk investing in the market now or play it safe another year?

Still waiting...

Market Timing can be Paralyzing

You can understand how market timing can be paralyzing. Waiting for the perfect time to invest in the market will leave you old and poor. Either stocks are overvalued and it’s not a good time to invest or stocks are crashing and it’s not a good time to invest.

People have been saying since 2017 that the stock market is overvalued and is due for a correction. A correction happened in December of 2018 when the market dropped about 12%. But if you waited for that to happen you would have lost out on 2017’s 19% gain. The desire to wait for a crash would have meant a loss of 7% compared to just investing when you had the money.

Or what if you noticed that the world was starting to be afraid of a novel coronavirus in February 2020. Between February 21st and 28th 2020 the S&P 500 dropped 12%. As a savvy investor I decided to “buy the dip” and invested a chuck of change during that time. What happened next? The S&P went down another 22%. Well that felt dumb. You can see how market timing very rarely works out favorably.

Luckily for me the stock market shot back up from its March lows and I made some money. But looking back on it now I would have made just as much, if not more, if I had just invested that money a couple months prior in 2019 rather than wait for a market correction.

It just doesn't work

How do I invest?

The point is no one knows what the future holds. Not you, not me, not J. P. Morgan. Only God is Omniscient so we must invest accordingly. We invest in broad market index funds like a total stock market index fund or an S&P 500 index fund because the market generally goes up over time. There are dips and corrections, but statistically the market increases by about 7% every year. And if we’re investing for 40 years those dips and corrections will hardly register on the radar. And if a total market index fund does go to zero it means the world has ended and you have more important things to worry about like where you’ll spend eternity.

The market could go up or down, but since we’re confident it will statistically keep going up, it doesn’t matter when you invest, it only matters that you do invest. An old adage says, “The best time to invest was yesterday, the next best time is today, and the worst time is tomorrow.”

The best time to invest was yesterday, the next best time is today, and the worst time is tomorrow.

A market crash is coming. It may be soon or still far off. It’s possible the new Omicron Covid variant may prompt countries to shut down and cause stocks to tumble. Or maybe we’ll see another decade-long bull market. We don’t know what will happen so don’t try to time the market.

Conclusion

Market timing is stupid since we don’t know the future of the stock market. But how do we prudently invest without risking our entire life savings? The answer is dollar cost averaging which I’ll explain in the next article.

What you do think? Not knowing the future, how do you invest? Let us know in the comment below.

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How to read an Index Fund Fact Sheet (Part 2)

In part 1 of this post we looked at the summary tab of the fact sheet for Schwab’s Total Stock Market Index Fund, SWTSX. We looked at share price, expense ratio, dividends, and returns. In this post we’re going to discuss what is actually in the index fund and how to track its performance.

Buy all the Stocks

Like the name implies, an American total stock market fund holds all of the publically traded companies in America. But each company isn’t weighted the same. If it were you would be buying the same amount of Crocs (the weird shoe thing) as you would be Apple or Facebook. You may want to do that, but in general Indices are weighted so that you are more invested in bigger, more stable companies that are less likely to go bankrupt.

One of the upsides of this weighting is that as companies grow and shrink so do their weight in the index. This mean that a company that is growing very fast will become worth more in the index thus causing your investment to grow faster with it. And companies that lose value lose their weighting in the index so they don’t bring your down with them.

So how can you tell how the index fund is weighted? If you click over to the portfolio tab you’ll get information about the fund’s holding. First you’ll see a map showing you where the fund’s companies are located. In this case they are primarily located in North America which makes sense for a total US stock index. To the right you’ll see the total assets and holdings. This fund holds 3,366 companies for a total of $17 billion. The nice thing about a total stock index is that your investment will never go to zero because it’s virtually impossible for all 3,366 companies to go bankrupt at the same time. (And if they do you’ll have more important things to worry about)

What companies are in my fund?

The portfolio tab gives a list of the top 10 holdings of an index fund.
Top 10 holdings of SWTSX. Most of them are FAANG stocks.

Below the map is a list of the top 10 holdings. You’ll see familiar names like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook. Alphabet Class A and C are both Google shares. You’ll hear a lot about the FAANG stocks in the news and you can see here that they make up a good portion of the total stock market. So when they go up it’s good news for you! Number 7 is Tesla so if you wanted to get in on the massive Tesla craze, but didn’t want to invest $700 for a single share, you can just by investing in a total stock index.

At the bottom you’ll see that the top 10 holdings consist of 22.68% of the entire fund. This is due to how the fund is weighted. Apple alone makes up 5% of the 3,366 companies. That’s how rich of a company Apple is. Just remember that next time you buy an iPhone. (Google makes up 3.5% so there’s that…)

So when you feel pressured to invest in Tesla or Amazon or anyone of the big names posting ridiculous gains, remember that a total stock index fund or an S&P 500 index fund is investing in all of these big names, but without the risk that comes from investing in a single company. Putting $10,000 into this index fund is equivalent to investing $314 in Amazon. But you also have 3,365 other companies that can help balance your risk.

Fund Performance

Now for the most important part: how did the Index fund perform? If you go over to the performance tab it will show you the returns over specific time intervals (YTD, 1 day, 1 month, and 3 months) as well as annualized returns for 1 year up to 15 years.

The Performance tab gives the returns over specific time intervals.
Average annual returns for SWTSX over several intervals

You can see that the 15 year returns are lower than those of the 1, 3, 5, and 10 year stats. This is because the 2008 financial crises is now more than 10 years behind us. Since 2009 we’ve been in the longest bull market in history. (It technically ended in 2020 with Covid, but as you can see from the 1 year returns, Covid hasn’t really hurt the stock market like we initially thought it would in March of 2020.)

Benchmarks

Below SWTSX you can see the returns for the S&P500 TR USD index. TR stands for Total Returns. It includes dividends as well as capital gains. This is the benchmark which Schwab is measuring against. The two diverge a little bit because the Total Stock Market Index isn’t the same as the S&P 500 Index, but they share much of the same investments since they are both weighted by the value of the richest companies.

Below that you’ll see the Large Blend category. This is the average returns of all the mutual funds consisting of top companies. Remember from the last post that SWTSX is considered a Large Blend fund so this screen compares the fund to the average returns of funds in its category. You can see from this comparison that the average Large Blend fund lags SWTSX (and the S&P 500) in every time span.

So what this is saying is that you have a better chance of making money by just investing in this total stock index fund than you do by paying some fancy fund manager to invest for you. Here is a list of Morningstar large blend funds. What you’ll notice looking at the list is that their Expense ratio is somewhere around 1%. That means you’re paying 1% in fees to get 1% less returns over a 15 year time span. If you had $100,000 invested in both SWTSX returning 10.82% and the average Large Blend mutual fund returning 9.83% with a 1% expense ratio, After 15 years the SWTSX fund would have $111,132.70 more in it. Expense Ratio fees are the worst! Which brings us to…

Fees

Why is the average expense ratio so high?
You can view your expense ratio compared to the category average.

If you go over to the Risk & Tax Analysis tab it will show you the projected returns over your time intervals when accounting for taxes. It will give you the pre-liquidation and post-liquidation estimates which are just the estimated returns based on taxes.

Schwab notes that the “Numbers are adjusted for possible sales charges, and assume reinvestment of dividends and capital gains over each time period.” And “Pre-liquidation (before sale of shares): includes taxes on fund’s distributions of dividends and capital gains. Figures based on highest Federal income tax bracket. State and local taxes are not included.”

This isn’t really interesting to us since the majority of typical middle class Midwestern families use an IRA or 401(k) to invest in the stock market. And if you are using a taxable brokerage account to invest in index funds you’ll likely have long term capital gains. You also won’t be in the highest Federal income tax bracket anyway so these values aren’t super helpful.

But what is helpful is the fees section at the bottom. You’ll see that the gross expense ratio and the net expense ratio are equal. This is normal for index funds. You’ll also see the Morningstar category average. Remember the list of Morningstar large blend funds? We estimated that they averaged about a 1% expense ratio. That looks to be a pretty good back of the napkin guess as the actual average is 0.83%. The average large blend mutual fund costs 27% more in fees and nets you a whole percentage point less in gains! A lose-lose situation. Fees are the worst.

Conclusion

In this 2-part post we discussed how to read an index mutual fund fact sheet. We learned how to navigate the sheet to determine expense ratios, returns, and dividends. We also saw how to determine a fund’s holding and see if it was performing well against its stated goal.

What do you think? Does this help make it easier to understand fund sheets? Let us know in the comments below!

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How to Read an Index Mutual Fund Fact Sheet

If you’ve been reading this blog and you read posts like What Investments to Actually Buy you’ve probably got an idea of why index funds are the way to go for the average Joe investor. They’re simple, plentiful, and, most importantly, cheap! But how do you know what you’re actually investing in? In this post I’ll show you how to read an index mutual fund fact sheet.

Let’s say you’ve decided to invest in the Schwab Total Stock Market Index Fund. If you google that, it’ll bring you to a page that looks like this.

Fund Details from SWTSX
Fund Details Page looks like information overload!

The first thing you may notice is the bold jumble of letters: SWTSX. This is called the ticker symbol. It usually tries to represent the name of the company or fund it symbolizes. For example the Ticker symbol for Google is GOOGL. SWTSX stands for SchWab Total Stock indeX. It sort of makes sense.

The next line has the NAV or net asset value. The NAV is the price of one share. If you want to buy one share of this fund today it will cost you $77.68. But since this is a mutual fund you don’t need to buy whole shares. If you look down towards the bottom of the picture you’ll see the minimum investment requirements. In the case of this index fund the minimum investment is $1. This isn’t always the case for index funds. For example Vanguard’s total stock index fund (VTSAX) has a minimum initial investment of $3000.

Expense Ratio (Less is Better)

Next to NAV is the daily change. The index went down 0.05% yesterday, boo. With mutual funds, they are bought and sold only once per day at 4 p.m. Eastern Time, after the market closes. This is different than ETFs or exchange traded funds. ETFs can be bought and sold on the market floor many times throughout the day just like an individual stock.

Next you’ll see what’s arguably the most important number: the Net Expense Ratio. This is also called the Management Expense Ratio or MER. The expense ratio for SWTSX is just 0.03%. That means for every $10,000 you have invested Schwab will take $3.00. Remember the average actively managed fund has an expense ratio of 1-2%. That’s a fee of $100-$200 for every $10,000 invested. So 0.03% is not bad at all!

The next section is the year to date (YTD) return. So far as of 7/31/2021 SWTSX has returned 17.23%. This means if you invested $10,000 into SWTSX on January 1st, by now you have made $1,723 in gains. The overall market average for the last 100 years has been about 10% so 2021 has been a good year so far for investors.

Below these under Fund Strategy, you’ll see the goal of this index fund. “The investment seeks to track the total return of the entire U.S. stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index.” The goal of SWTSX is to track the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index. Seems straight forward enough. This is why it is so cheap. You’re not paying any fund manager to attempt to pick the winning stocks, they’re just following a publically available index.

Performance and Dividends (More is More)

Above fund strategy you’ll see a graph of the fund’s performance over the last 10 years. If you had invested $10,000 into SWTSX in August of 2011 it would have grown to over $40,000 by now. Schwab compares that to two other options the S&P 500 TR and the average Large Blend fund. We’ll discuss this more later.

In the details to the right you’ll see some of the same information as we’ve seen above. It also includes the distribution yield. The distribution yield includes the dividends and capital gains and is seen as a percentage of the NAV In this case it’s an average of the last 12 months of dividends and capital gains divided by the price of the stock. Under that you can see that the most recent distribution was $1.0805/share. I you divide $1.0805 by $77.68 you get 1.39%.

Dividends and Distributions Page from SWTSX
Dividends and Distributions showing when pay day is

If you click over to the Dividends and Distributions tab under fund performance it’ll show you the distributions over the value of the stock shares. If you hover over the points you’ll see that this fund pays its dividends and capital gains at the end of December. This is pretty common. Most companies pay dividends quarterly, but most index funds usually just save this up and pay them out at the end of the year.

Risk vs. Reward (Equal is More)

Summary from SWTSX
I thought I calculated the risks, but man am I bad at math

If we scroll down the page you’ll get the names of the account managers and how long they’ve been managing the fund. This doesn’t matter for an index fund because the manager’s only job is to see that it follows the index. For an actively managed fund the manager’s job is to pick winning stocks so his history and experience with the fund is important. Why would you trust your money to someone who’s only been doing it for a couple years and never seen a stock market crash?

To the right of that you’ll see the Morningstar rating. This is considered a Large Blend fund. Large meaning mostly large capital, big companies, and Blend meaning a blend of stable companies like Johnson and Johnson and ones that have seen considerable growth like Amazon.

Then there’s the Portfolio weightings. This says that 26.92% of this index fund is in Information Technology like Apple, Microsoft, and Netflix. The next biggest weighting is in health care which makes sense because health care will always be needed. Financials is mostly banks which are usually pretty good at making money (you gotta have money to make money I guess).

Down at the bottom you’ll see the risk vs reward meters. The historic return and the historic risk are both above average. This makes sense since stocks are risky and risk and reward are usually well correlated. If you see a fund that has above average return and below average risk, you should be wary of it, and if you see a fund with high risk and low reward, you’re probably better off investing elsewhere.

Conclusion

We’ll finish this up next post discussing what’s actually in this index fund and how to see if it’s performing well against the stated goal.

What do you think? Does this help make it easier to understand fund sheets? Let us know in the comments below!

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What Investments to Actually Buy

When you read about investing you hear a lot of jargon, most of which we hopefully explained in the last post. You hear a lot of about asset allocation and risk tolerance and financial planning, but you’re rarely told what is a wise investment. The closest you get is someone telling you what to invest in, and when that happens you’re probably better off not following their advice because it’s some speculative stock or startup company. So what is a wise investment? What investments should you actually buy? Source: xkcd.com

One of the simplest and most efficient ways to invest is what’s called the Three Fund Portfolio, so named because it only invests in three different funds. It’s also called the Lazy Portfolio. A Three Fund Portfolio consists of an American total stock market index fund (which we recommended in our post What is Financial Independence), an international total stock market index fund and a total bond market index fund.

With just these three funds an investor can invest in over 10,000 different assets and securities all over the world!

The idea of this simple set of index funds is that you’ll get exposure to the American stock market, the international market, and the bond market. The American stock market is probably the greatest wealth-creation tool ever created. Most other countries have their own stock exchanges as well so with the international market you can invest in companies from those countries. The third fund covers bonds, which are basically government and corporate money-raising programs. So with just these three funds an investor can invest in over 10,000 different assets and securities all over the world!

So why these three funds?

According to our definition from the last article, index funds just try to replicate an index (basically a really fancy Excel spreadsheet). These three funds are replicating the Total Stock Index, the Total International Index, and the Total Bond Index. That means they will never under-perform the market as a whole, since they represent the entire market. Also being index funds, they have low expense ratios. Remember, the expense ratio (MER) is the percent of your invested money that is charged in management fees. Index funds can have a very low MER because there is no need for a manager to pick stocks – it just follows the index. While actively managed funds can have expense ratios of 1-2%, Charles Schwab’s S&P 500 fund charges just 0.02%. 1/100th of the cost!

These funds also have several advantages: diversification (lots of different companies and asset classes), low turnover (less in taxes), and being easy to rebalance (since you only need to keep track of three funds).

Asset Allocation

Remember, asset allocation is the ratio of assets that you choose to hold. Since we are only talking about three funds, the ratio stays pretty simple. This is the ratio of American stocks to international stocks to bonds. What asset allocation should you have? A good starting point is 30% US Total Stock Market, 30% International Stock Market, and 40% total Bond Market. This follows the traditional 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. And it also splits US and international markets by weight since the US claims half of the entire world’s economy.

An advantage of deciding on a set asset allocation is that these three funds are not necessarily correlated. When stocks do well, bonds do not. If international stocks fall, US stocks could also fall or they could rise. When US stocks crater, US bonds go up. For example in March of 2020 when the stock market lost 30%, bonds went up 5%. This not only helps you weather storms, it also gives you a chance to make money. If in March of 2020 when your bonds are up 5%, you sold that extra 5% and used it to buy US stocks. Then in April when the stock market started to go back up you would have had that extra 5% increase in your investments.

Rebalancing

This is what is known as rebalancing. Rebalancing is when you sell some of your winners to purchase the funds that aren’t doing so hot. This may seem counterintuitive, but it allows you sell when asset prices are high and buy when they are on sale. This way you keep your desired asset allocation and survive through market crashes.

(As a note: I have very little in bonds right now as bond yields are so low. When they increase in a year or two I will start buying more bonds to get back to that 60/40 split. Also, if you are more than about 10 years away from retirement, I wouldn’t have 40% of my investment in bonds. I would focus more on pre-paying my mortgage or getting out of debt.)

So what funds should I actually invest in?

It depends on who you are investing with. While the funds are all basically the same since they replicate the same indexes, the actual ticker names are different.

For Vanguard the three funds are:

  • VTSAX – Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund
  • VTIAX – Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund
  • VBTLX – Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund

For Schwab they are:

  • SWTSX – Schwab Total Stock Market Index Fund
  • SWISX – Schwab International Index Fund
  • SWAGX – Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond Index Fund

For Fidelity you have options so that could be better or worse depending on how simple you want it:

  • FZROX – Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund, or FSKAX – Fidelity Total Market Index Fund
  • FZILX – Fidelity ZERO International Index Fund, or FTIHX – Fidelity Total International Index Fund
  • FXNAX – Fidelity U. S. Bond Index Fund

These are just three examples. I personally invest using Schwab and I have SWTSX, SWISX, and SWAGX. For Schwab’s Total Stock Market Index Fund (SWTSX) the expense ratio is 0.03%, their International Index Fund (SWISX) has an expense ratio of 0.06%, and their U.S. Aggregate Bond Index Fund (SWAGX) has an expense ratio of 0.04%. This means at a 30/30/40 split asset allocation, the average expense ratio is 0.043% meaning for every $1,000 invested I would pay $0.43 per year. This is why the Three Fund Portfolio out-performs nearly every professional investment portfolio, It’s simple enough that anyone can do it and it costs almost nothing in fees.

What do you think? Which funds are you invested in? Let us know in the comments below!