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Is it True that 40% of Americans Don’t have $400 in the Bank?

You’ve all heard the statistic that 40% of Americans don’t have $400 for an emergency. That seems pretty dire! $400 is not that much money in the grand scheme of things. In many cases $400 would not cover rent, a maintenance bill, or even groceries for the month. If this statistic is to be believed, this leaves over 130 million Americans just one step away from financial ruin. So where did this 40% figure come from and is it true?

Page 21 of the Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2017 starts off by saying “Four in 10 adults in 2017 would either borrow, sell something, or not be able pay if faced with a $400 emergency expense.” News outlets and politicians have run with this to say that 40% of Americans don’t even have $400 in the bank. It makes for a pretty catchy headline and newspapers exist to be sold. But you know what they say, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, d***** lies, and statistics.”

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, d***** lies, and statistics.”

Anonymous

There are problems with all statistics, which is why the methodology must be published alongside the survey. This is also why there are entire classes devoted to statistical bias. In this case, the survey was about how the respondents would choose to pay a $400 emergency expense, and they were allowed to pick more than one answer. The actual responses add up to more than 100%.

The actual data can be seen here.

Question EF3

Suppose that you have an emergency expense that costs $400. Based on your current financial situation, how would you pay for this expense? If you would use more than one method to cover this expense, please select all that apply.

143% answered so it's can't be true that 40% of Americans Don’t have $400 in the bank.

The total adds up to 143% so obviously this data is flawed. The 40% number is taken from the adding all of the responses that weren’t “Put it on my credit card and pay it off in full at the next statement” or “With the money currently in my checking/savings account or with cash”. These answers together comes in at 59%. 59% divided by 143% comes out to about 41%.

So the math works out, but does it make sense? What if one participant surveyed responded with “With the money currently in my checking/savings account or with cash” and another marked all of the responses? They would both be able to pay a $400 bill with cash, but the “percent of respondents who would either borrow, sell something, or not be able pay if faced with a $400 emergency expense” would be 7/10 or 70%. See how disingenuous that is?

A better gauge of the American financial situation might be seen in question EF5.

Question EF5A. Which best describes your ability to pay all of your bills in full this month? 78% responded with “Able to pay all of bills”.

Question EF5B. How would a $400 emergency expense that you had to pay impact your ability to pay your other bills this month? 85% responded with “Would still be able to pay all bills”.

Why would more people be able to pay all of their bills after a $400 emergency than before? This just adds to my suspicion that the 40% number is flawed. It’s possible that Question EF5B is only asked of the 78% who affirmatively in part A, but the report does not say that.

This report was cited later that year in a study by Neil Bhutta and Lisa Dettling, which found that 76% of families have at least $400 in liquid savings, and 40% have at least 3 months of expenses saved up. This directly contradicts the commonly quoted 40% number.

The original question was asking how the respondent would pay a $400 emergency expense, not whether they had the cash to pay it. While the answers are probably correlated with general financial health, there are plenty of reasons why someone who had the money would choose not to pay for an unexpected bill in cash. This survey isn’t saying that 40% of Americans don’t have $400 to pay for an emergency.

How bad are the typical family’s finances?

America’s finances are not great, that’s definitely true. For example the average household has $6,270 in credit card debt. That’s a shocking amount considering the average interest rate on credit cards is 18%. But it’s not all bad news, 47% of respondents in this study said they have never carried an unpaid balance on their credit cards. Almost half of Americans have never had credit card debt!

The FIRE movement has gained considerable traction in the last few years, and between that and the pandemic Americans’ personal savings rates have shot up. The average savings rate for 2020 was 16% and the high in April 2020 was 33.7%! That’s almost 5 times as much as the ~7% it had been at for the previous 5 years.

If the personal savings rate stayed at 16% everyone could afford to retire early assuming they invested those savings. So I think that while Americans in general are bad at delayed gratification and that clearly manifests itself in their financial situation, the actual truth is much brighter than we’re being led to believe.

Furthermore when looking at the Economic Well-Being survey from 2019 (two years later), the percentage of people who could pay cash for a $400 pop-up expense has actually increased by 28% over the last 7 years. That’s good news! Americans are getting better financially! But good news doesn’t sell headlines, so you’re probably going to keep seeing doom and gloom. At least now you’re prepared.

Now you know.
Knowing is half the battle – G. I. JOE

What do you think? Is the typical American drowning in debt or is the mainstream media more interested in clicks than truth? Let us know in the comments below!

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Why You Shouldn’t Retire Early

I know that “you shouldn’t retire early” is a strange thing to say on a FIRE blog, but hear me out. The FIRE movement has gained a lot of traction in recent years because of the obvious allure of leaving the workforce at a young age. Quitting at 40 and never having to slave away for the Man again is an exciting thought. But people focus so much on the RE part that they forget the true meaning of FI. FIRE is more than just saving money to be able to retire early, it’s a way of living and thinking that allows you to spend money on what’s important to you rather than on things and keeping up with the Joneses. For some people this leads to retiring early, but it doesn’t have to.

Early retirement is just one way to use your savings, and I’m here to try to convince you that it’s not even the best way.

Purpose is what makes life worth living

The main tenet of FIRE is that you can use money to buy freedom. That can be seen most vividly in quitting the workforce, but early retirement in and of itself shouldn’t be the only goal. We’ve employed FIRE strategy to allow my wife, Courtney, to be a stay at home mom, or to not have to works nights or weekends.

Whatever you do find purpose in it. I work as an electrical engineer. I enjoy engineering, it’s a lot of fun, but I went into engineering because it paid well. My job is enjoyable and I like the people I work with, but I wouldn’t go to work every day if I didn’t get a paycheck. Currently the purpose of this paycheck is to support my family, but I plan to continue working after reaching FI. There are just too many charities to support. I would also like to be able to support a few missionaries full time.

Man was meant to work

One of the big issues with the FIRE movement is that mankind was meant to work. The desire to do something meaningful with our lives is a fundamental characteristic of humanity. Work doesn’t have to be grueling or even profitable to be meaningful, but working is embedded into our nature. When God created Adam, He gave him the job of tending the Garden of Eden. Genesis 2:15 says, “Then the Lord God took the man and put him into the Garden of Eden to cultivate it and keep it.” It wouldn’t have been a hard job as the world was perfect, but it was still a job, and it was still meaningful.

Work doesn’t have to be grueling or even profitable to be meaningful, but working is embedded into our nature.

Working was part of God’s original design. There is no arguing with that. It wasn’t originally designed to be exhausting work, but it was meant to be work. It wasn’t until Adam sinned that God cursed the world. In Genesis 3:17-19 God says, “Cursed is the ground because of you; in toil you will eat of it all the days of your life. Both thorns and thistles it shall grow for you… by the sweat of your face you will eat bread.”

But even now with the curse in effect, work is still part of God’s plan and still intended to be meaningful and fulfilling. Solomon, the wisest man who ever lived said, “I have seen that nothing is better than that man should be happy in his work, for that is his lot. For who will bring him to see what will occur after him?” (Ecclesiastes 3:22) Denying a basic characteristic of humanity because you don’t like your job is foolish.

Retiring can lead to death

A 2016 study from OSU that followed roughly 3000 retirees’ health from 1992 on found that the age of retirement was directly correlated with lifespan. The range of retirement ages in the study was 53 to 79 with the average at 65 years old. They found that retiring one year later was associated with a 9% lower mortality risk, and specifically that delaying retirement age from 65 to 66 resulted in an 11% drop in mortality rates.

This study corroborates past research and makes practical sense. Work keeps your mind and body active. It also helps keep you socially engaged. For most people, the majority of their social life is structured around work. When they leave the workforce they leave behind their friends and daily structure. They develop more sedentary lifestyles, and no longer have a ready source of mental stimulation. More importantly, they often leave behind their purpose.

Work for fun, not for money

So am I saying that all this FIRE stuff is bunk and you should just live it up now and work your 9-5 job until you die? No, of course not! The problem is that our definition of work has been tainted by the Fall of Man. We think of work as toil and pain that we perform grudgingly because we need the money. But that’s not how it was originally intended. Adam didn’t need money; he didn’t even need to tend the Garden. The trees were already there and they produced fruit on their own. The purpose of tending the Garden was to have something to enjoy and fulfill him.

If we worked for the joy of it rather than just for the paycheck, we get that joy and fulfillment that comes with a hard day’s work without feeling like we have to do it just to survive. You’ve heard the old adage: “Do what you love and you’ll never work a day in your life”. While that’s terrible advice to give an 18 year-old deciding what major to enroll in, there is some truth to it.

That’s where FIRE comes in. When you are in the wealth accumulation stage of your FIRE journey, work hard at a job that pays. Save what you can in order to reach financial independence. After that keep working, for the fulfillment and joy and meaning it brings. FIRE gives you the opportunity to do what you love, because you’ve saved enough to be free from working just to survive.

Why keep working if I can retire? The answer is two-fold.

First off, man was designed to work. Not working ignores a fundamental part of what makes us human. It’s like ignoring the fact that sweet food brings us joy or need human interaction, it rarely turns out well. There’s a reason depression is more of a problem in developed countries. Having something to work towards gives us something to live for. Personally some of my happiest days are the ones I spend hauling furniture and helping people move, and the most depressing days are the ones where I sit around doing nothing or watching TV. Meaningful work is an incredibly powerful source of happiness.

Secondly, having extra cash you don’t need is great for those less fortunate than yourselves. Imagine how much good you could do in this world if you could donate your entire paycheck to charity. For example sharethemeal.org says for $0.80 you can feed a child for a day. feedthechildren.org says for $34/month you can provide food, water, and education to third world countries. onetreeplanted.org will plant a tree for $1. Not to mention all the good you could do in your own family or community.

But, I hear you about to say, what if I hate my job?

That’s alright, the point of FIRE is that you don’t have to work a job you hate, because you don’t have to work for money. Once you’ve reached FI you can leave that job to pursue something else. That something could be another job, or you may volunteer for a charity, or learn an instrument, or start a business. The possibilities are endless because you don’t have to work for a paycheck.

Don’t just rot away in a cubicle, get out there and work hard at something you’ve always wanted to do, and if you work hard enough at it, someone might pay you for it. Elon Musk “retired” (read: was fired) from PayPal in 2000 and when eBay bought it in 2002, Musk ended up with $180 million.

In his 2012 commencement speech to Cal Tech Elon Musk said, “Going from PayPal, I thought, ‘Well, what are some of the other problems that are likely to most affect the future of humanity?’ It really wasn’t from the perspective of what’s the … best way to make money.” He decided the big problems to solve were sustainable energy and space travel so In 2002 He founded SpaceX and in 2003 he founded Tesla.

Elon Musk is a perfect example of this mentality. He had more than enough to retire and sip cocktails on the beach forever, but he knew that he was driven to work and that there were problems that needed to be solved. And since he didn’t need to think about the “best way to make money” he could focus on trying to good in the world even if it wasn’t profitable. And as icing on the cake, Tesla and SpaceX are both successful companies and Musk is the richest man in the world.

What else is there?

If you work your dream job, you shouldn't retire early.
Source: xkcd.com

When you don’t work for money you can really focus on working for good

All of this isn’t to say I haven’t entertained the idea of retiring early. But, again, if I did it wouldn’t be to sip cocktails on the beach. It would be to pursue something else. For example I’ve always wanted to publish a video game and the current indie scene is ripe for making games. I’ve also considered writing a Biblical commentary or other theology book.

Whatever your hand finds to do, do it with all your might; for there is no activity or planning or knowledge or wisdom in Sheol where you are going.

Ecclesiastes 9:10

Solomon said whatever work you do, do it will all your might. While you’re still working towards financial independence, that will most likely be your day job. But after reaching FI the sky’s the limit. Find the next goal/adventure to work towards. Retire early if you want, but never stop working!

What do you think? Is it worth working to do more good in the world? Let us know in the comments below!

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How to Retire Early on a Single Income (Part 2)

As I said last time in Part 1, by and large, we are a typical Midwestern family. Full disclosure however, I have a career in STEM. So while I don’t make nearly as much as my counterparts on the east or west coasts, I do make an above average salary for the Midwest. I want to acknowledge that for all that my journey isn’t going to look like Mr. Money Mustache’s, your journey may very well not look like mine. How does a typical family like mine retire early on a single income?

And yet while not unimportant, your annual salary doesn’t determine when you can retire. The length of your working career is determined by your savings rate, or the ratio of your savings to your earnings. For example, if you earn $50,000/year and save $10,000/year your savings rate is 20%. The higher your savings rate, the quicker you can retire. Let’s see how this works by taking a look at two examples.

A Doctor and a Plumber

Exhibit A: A high-earning doctor who makes $300,000/year. He’s doing pretty good financially, but let’s say he spends $280,000/year. Divide 280,000/300,000 and you get a spending rate of 94% and a savings rate of 6%. He may make 5X’s the national average salary but he will have to work for 50 years to be able to retire because of his lavish lifestyle.

Exhibit B: A plumber who makes $50,000/year, but only spends $35,000. His savings rate is 30%, and he will only need to work for 24 years before being able to retire. The plumber may only make 1/6 the salary of the doctor, but he can quit the workforce in half the time by merely keeping his spending under control.

Exhibit A                                              Exhibit B                                 

To reach a 30% savings rate the doctor would only have to cut his spending by 25%. That means a 25% decrease in spending leads to a 52% decrease in the amount of time you need to work. This is an exponential decline in the amount of time needed to retire because boosting your savings rate has the double effect of both increasing the money you put into your nest egg and decreasing the amount you spend, thus decreasing the amount you’ll need for retirement.

Early Retirement in the Midwest

In 2018 the median household income in the Midwest was $64,069/year (source), and the average consumer spending was $59,909 (source). If we divide spending by income we get a spending rate of 93.5% and a savings rate of 6.5%. If we assume that everything not spent is put into a retirement account that returns 7% (the market average accounting for inflation), we come to the conclusion that the average Midwesterner can retire in 48 years 4months. Almost 50 years is a long time to work.

It will take the doctor 48 years to retire.
Source: networthify.com

Now let’s do the math using the spending that I calculated in Part 1 of this post. I estimated our family’s spending to be about $43,200/year. If we divide $43,200 by $64,069 (the average Midwestern income, not our actual income), we get a spending rate of 67.4% and a savings rate of 32.6%. If that $20,869 is put into a retirement account returning 7%, it will only take 23 years to be able to have enough to retire. And if I adjust the median income for inflation to 2020 dollars I get less than 21 years!

It will only take the plumber 23 years to retire.
Source: networthify.com

That being said, I’m not planning to retire in 20 years, at least not at this moment. We’ll see what God brings in the future, but I’m content to keep working. One of the reasons for that is that we plan to have more kids so expenses will increase, and we also still plan to give money to church and other charities. We donated about $10,000 last year so if I add that to the $43,200 budget, the time calculates to a little over 30 years. That’s not retiring super early, but it’s quite a bit less than the average.

Anyone Can Retire Early on a Single Income

The current average retirement age is 65 for men and 63 for women. If you were born after 1960, the full retirement age is 67 if you want to receive full benefits from Social Security. That means if you started working at 18 the government expects you to work for 49 years. That is a long time to be slaving away for the Man. Retiring in 20, 30, or even 40 years is still retiring early.

A 25% decrease in spending leads to a 52% decrease in the amount of time you need to work.

Be responsible with your money, be frugal, but don’t feel like you need to scrimp and save every cent you make. It may mean you retire later than other FIRE followers, but so what? It’s your money and your life. Make your money work for you in a way that allows you to live the lifestyle you want. If you can do that, you’ve won.

Not everyone has a large salary, but by following some of the tips I laid out in Part 1 of this post and being diligent about only spending your money on what’s important, even a typical family with children can save for early retirement on a modest income.

What do you think? What’s a major expense for you? Or what have you sacrificed to reach financial independence? Let us know in the comments below!

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How to Retire Early on a Single Income (Part 1)

By and large, we are a typical Midwestern family. I work an 8 to 5 job, my wife is a stay-at-home mom, and we have one child. It took us seven years to have our first kid, but we plan to have as many kids as God will give us (I hope He doesn’t give us more than four). I only work 40 hours/week because I want to be able to spend time with my family, and actually get to enjoy some of my youth. We spend a good amount of time at church so moonlighting is off the table. Also, we give money to church and other charities. So how does a family with (hopefully) multiple children, limited time, retire early on a single income all while also donating to charity?

The most basic advice you can be given is to make a budget, and then spend less than you make. This is pretty solid advice. We have a budget, but it’s mostly for tracking our spending rather than strictly budgeting it. We find that having a number without holding ourselves to it rigidly works well for us. The main expenses in our budget are groceries, entertainment, gas, bills, and pop-up expenses. Here’s a rough breakdown of what those expenses look like for us, and how we work to spend a reasonable amount in each category.

XKCD - Your monetary worth is now based on memes
Source: xkcd.com

Groceries

This category is pretty self-explanatory. We cook for ourselves most of the time and we buy groceries at Walmart. It comes to a few hundred dollars a month.

When you shop at Walmart, it’s pretty easy to keep the grocery budget low. We make sure to buy non-perishable items in bulk. In our opinion, most generic brands taste just the same as name brands, so we tend to buy almost exclusively off-brand groceries.

For breakfast we usually eat cereal. Cereal is already pretty cheap but we make each dollar stretch by buying the giant bags to off-brand cereal. This doesn’t mean we get the cheapest stuff possible, but we often get Malt-o-Meal brand and save name brands for the cereal for when there is no off-brand available. Breakfast usually comes to $0.50/meal.

I bring a lunch to work which usually consists of a sandwich, a bag of chips, a drink, and maybe a dessert. Courtney makes bread which is super cheap since it’s mostly flour, but homemade bread is far better than even expensive quality bread from a store. Instead of individual bags of chips, we get a family-sized bag and portion it into little Ziploc baggies (which are then reused so we aren’t filling landfills with plastic).

I may get ridiculed for this but I still like Capri Suns so we get a big pack of those and put one in my lunch. And for dessert Courtney makes cookies or cake or something that tastes way better than junk food from Walmart and is much cheaper. If I am working from home, as I have been for the last year, we tend to eat leftovers, or just the same thing I usually eat in lunches. My lunch probably costs $2/day.

Dinner is where things get a little more “expensive”. We love Italian, Chinese, Indian, Mexican, pretty much everything, but what do these all have in common? They cost quite a bit at a restaurant, but can be made for cents on the dollar at home. You don’t even really need to know how to cook. I make a mean stir fry if I do say so myself, and it’s basically just meat, frozen veggies, rice, and whatever seasonings and sauces sound good that evening. And it always makes leftovers. We can make dinner for like $3/meal.

Entertainment

This category consists of eating out, hobbies, going to movies etc. We eat out once a week, on average, each have a couple of hobbies, and will go out for the occasional movie (When movies are actually in theater, unlike this year). Entertainment comes to about a couple hundred dollars a month.

Basically we save money on entertainment mostly by cooking our own meals, but when we do go out for food, we have a few simple rules that help us save hundreds/year.

1. We don’t order drinks. Sure pop tastes good (so I’m told), but at anywhere from $2-$6 for a drink, it can add up quickly. Also pop is terrible for you, even sugar-free pop is still carbonic acid which degrades your teeth. Water is free and good for you!

2.  We never order alcohol. It helps that we don’t like the taste, but the tax on alcohol makes it fiscally untenable. See also all the health reasons laid out in rule 1 above.

3. We don’t order dessert. By now you’re probably starting to think I’m just a kill-joy. But the reason we don’t order dessert is that we almost never finish our plates when we eat out. Don’t stuff yourself just to eat some piece of cake that’s been sitting out in their kitchen for 12 hours. Make your own cake at home. It’s much tastier and cheaper.

4. Take home leftovers. Don’t force yourself to finish the food that’s on your plate because you think it’s wasteful not to, and don’t throw it out. Get a to-go box! Those leftovers can become a meal tomorrow, thus saving you money on your grocery budget. I have heard that there are actually people who think it’s cheap to take home leftovers.

5. We like to see movies in the theater, but we never buy snacks from the theater. We always bring our own snacks to the movies. In this day and age, most movie theater employees don’t bother checking your bag unless you’re carrying in a duffel bag. We make it a game to see how much we can sneak into the theater. Our goal is to one day sneak a whole pizza in!

As for hobbies, both of us have reasonably cheap hobbies. My wife loves to collect books, and I like to rock climb. When done right, neither of those hobbies are horribly expensive. My wife almost never pays full price for a book, opting to either buy them online or just finding books at thrift stores. And even though we have to go to a climbing gym to climb (not many big rocks in Kansas), I get a punch pass that goes on sale twice a year.

Gas

Once again, this category is also self-explanatory. While we try not to drive a whole lot, about once every month or two we travel to Nebraska to see family so that’s about $50 in and of itself. Since I’ve been able to work from home for the past year, we’ve been able to keep gas under $100/month.

We have two cars, both of which get about 30 miles to the gallon. We live about 15 miles from my work place, and while we could live closer to save on gas we like our neighborhood. I save on gas by coasting up to red lights and not accelerating quickly. The majority of gas is wasted when starting from a stop so if you time your lights well you can save a lot on gas. I’m not kidding. Seriously, if you only take one thing from this whole article, I want you to start coasting up to red lights. My wife, who edits these articles, doesn’t want me to leave this in but I’m dead serious. Also I never turn the AC onto full-blast. It takes a lot of energy to run a condenser.

I am serious. And don't call me Shirley.
Coasting up to red lights saves your budget and the environment

Bills

This category includes our mortgage, utilities, and other recurring bills. The mortgage is obviously the biggest part of this section, but we refinanced last year and locked in a rate of 2.625%! We usually keep our bills under $2000/month.

The best way to save on bills is to refinance your mortgage. As a general rule of thumb if you can get a 1% reduction in mortgage rate, it’s worth refinancing. We refinanced from a 4.325% to a 2.625% dropping our payments by about $200/month. Utilities are another area where there is room to save. In the winter time we keep he heat at 68°F during the day and 64°F at night. In the summer we keep the AC at 78°F during the day and 72°F at night. These are totally reasonable temperatures for the Midwest. We are also in the process of replacing all the lights with LED’s. We are waiting until they burn out because it’s dumb to replace something before it’s broken.

Popup expenses

This category is our biggest variable in the budget. This includes annual insurance payments, car maintenance, big trips, and other expenses that are not monthly. We budget $1000/month for this, but it can be anywhere from a couple hundred to a couple thousand. Last year we averaged about $1000/month.

This is hard to keep control over, but in general we save on transportation by driving old cars. Since our cars aren’t worth much we only pay for liability insurance. In my opinion, full coverage is a scam. I also do much of the routine car maintenance myself. My dad and I change our own oil, brakes, and rotors. A high-mileage synthetic oil change will cost you $80 at an oil place (and even more at the dealership), but doing it yourself will only set you back about an hour plus the cost of the oil (about $20 at Walmart). Changing oil on two cars twice a year saves us $240/year. And for the record I’m not a car guy, I just looked up how to do this on YouTube.

As for vacations or big trips, we work to keep costs low by Pricelining hotels, packing meals for car trips, and finding deals when possible. But I’ll be honest, this is the area we are most likely to splurge. We like to try new experiences, so often vacations are full to the brim with different activities.

How Much do we Spend?

So doing a back of the napkin calculation, our essential expenses are roughly $3600/month or $43,200/year. This allows us to use a large portion of my salary for other things.

One of the things we do with this is we tithe 10% to our local church. This isn’t a compulsory giving, but 10% is an easy amount for us and we’re happy to help the church out however we can. We donate to an International Student organization that works with our Alma Maters, and this year we donated to the Prevent Cancer Foundation.

All this isn’t to say look at us we’re so frugal. But I hope it does give an example of how a middle-class family can easily stay under budget. And as I mentioned earlier in this post, we’re not strict in keeping to this budget. While we try to be frugal, we’re not being cheap. We don’t just eat Ramen noodles or rice and beans to save money. Courtney makes real meals that taste great, and we still go out to eat regularly. We don’t turn off the heat in the winter time and when something is seriously wrong with our cars we take them to a mechanic.

There’s a difference between frugal and being cheap, and while that line is different for different people, I don’t think we’re cheap. We don’t pinch pennies or clip coupons, but we like to live frugally so that we can spend money on things that are important to us. Like I’ve already said many times on this blog: financial independence isn’t a race, it’s a slow burn. So based on our spending how early can we retire? Find out in Part 2 of this post next time.

What do you think? What’s a major expense for you? Or what have you sacrificed to reach financial independence? Let us know in the comments below!